The occasionally coherent ramblings of an ex-cop and former broadcast journalist turned crime novelist.
Thursday, July 10, 2008
Thoughts on Violence Assessment and Prediction
Susan will be joining us here through Saturday. Please feel free to offer comments or ask her questions.
The assessment of threats of violence is an evolving practice – a blend of art and science. When the field of threat assessment first emerged in the early 1990’s, there was little research and much of what was believed was based on anecdotal information from few cases. Since the early days, a great deal has been learned through research and by thoroughly studying crime scenes and looking for commonalities. The fact that over the years there have been more crime scenes makes for a better understanding of what is still a relatively rare event – the workplace mass homicide. The following compose what is the current thinking in the field of threat assessment and prevention.
Profiles are not particularly helpful.
The year 1986, for all intents purposes, put workplace violence on the map as far as most Americans were concerned. That was the year Patrick Sherrill killed 15 co-workers, injured six others and then killed himself in the Edmond, OK Post Office. Prior to this, the majority of Americans felt safe at work. The idea of the person who works next to them turning on them and killing them was a foreign concept.
In the years that followed, Americans were inundated by media stories recounting violence at one workplace after another. We were told workplace violence is the fastest growing crime; that workplace violence is the number one killer of women at work. “Experts” were quick to rise to the occasion and develop profiles of the typical perpetrator of workplace violence. He was described as a middle-aged, white male with a military background who is a loner and chronically disgruntled. Thousands upon thousands heard this portrait in the media, in corporate trainings and from the experts themselves. Unfortunately, while this profile may fit some or many of the perpetrators of past violence, it is not helpful in the least in determining if someone poses a threat to anyone.
As the research into mass homicides in the workplace improved, more information emerged that identified the kinds of behavioral cues that individuals exhibit prior to the act. Gavin de Becker, a national expert on the prediction of violence, calls them Pre-Incident Indicators or PINS. I will discuss PINS in more depth in an upcoming essay. The important thing to remember is the predictors of violence are behaviors, not individual characteristics or demographics.
Violence is situational.
Many articles, books, and videos have discussed the “potentially violent” individual. The problem with this thinking is that there will never be a group of personal characteristics that one can use to determine if someone will become violent at some future time. Violence is situational and we all have the capacity to become violent depending on the circumstances. There is a big difference between the potential for violence and the intent for violence.
Violence is the product of the interaction among three factors:
- An individual who sees violence as a means to an end,
- A setting that permits, facilitates, or does nothing to stop the violence, and
- A precipitating event, or “final straw” in the perpetrator’s life.
Without all factors there is no violence. Any one of these can be manipulated or intervened in to prevent the violence from occurring. Focusing solely on an individual without looking at the setting and the stressors being brought to bear is incomplete and unlikely to be successful.
One-time assessments are not useful.
An assessment of the risk of violence is not and cannot be a one-time event. Since the risk is based on situational factors, those factors can change, along with the risk. Each situation must be continually monitored to determine what is changing in the individual’s life. Are the factors that are likely to escalate the violence increasing or decreasing?
What about the factors that are likely to mitigate against violence such as steady employment, financial resources, a marriage and children? A subject can appear to be low-risk only to have that risk quickly escalate when the spouse leaves, is suspected of having an affair, employment is terminated, and/or heavy drinking clouds the judgment. Real cases are never static but always produce an ebb and flow.
Susan’s posting continues tomorrow…
Wednesday, July 9, 2008
What Your Car Tells People About You
I offered the thought that victims often contribute to their victimization. Sometimes by what they do. Sometimes by what they fail to do.
The woman who lives alone and leaves her blinds open, inviting a would-be serial rapist to have a glimpse of her life.
The person who ignores warning signs of violence in their spouse-to-be.
I suggested embracing the intuitive ability we all have to stay alert to potentially violent situations and I provided Jeff Cooper’s Color Codes of Mental Awareness as a way to hone those intuitive skills.
I even mentioned how my cat, Socks, helped me learn to stay at Cooper’s condition Yellow.
It helps if you can program yourself to think like a predator.
When I was a deputy sheriff, a wise corrections officer warned me to keep something in mind whenever I worked in the county jail. He said, “You can spend eight hours a day in here trying stay safe but the prisoners have twenty-four hours a day, seven days a week to figure out ways to f___k you up.”
Crooks look for the exact same opportunities on the outside, too. Here are some ways they might use your car as a resource:
- Do you have vanity plates with your name on them? (Getting you to lower your guard while approaching you, a predator could say something like, “Hey, Lucy, I haven’t seen you since high school…”).
- Is your address on any slip of paper, envelope or box to be shipped that can be read from outside the car? Do you leave letters to be mailed face up on the seat or dash?
- Do you ever leave your car with a parking valet? With a mechanic? Is your house key on the ring with the ignition key you provide them?
- Is your garage door opener in the car (they have codes that can easily be read and duplicated)?
- Is your home address on anything in your glove box or under the seat? How about in your briefcase?
- Are there pictures of your children inside your car? The name of their school?
- For that matter, do you ever leave your car running with your child inside for “just a minute” while you duck into a store?
- Do you ever leave your car unlocked?
- Do you look in the back seat before entering your car after it’s been parked for awhile?
- Is there an emergency release in the trunk for the trunk lid?
- Do you carry your cell phone on your person at all times or leave it in your car?
Expand this list and look through a predator’s eyes at your home, your daily activities, and your children’s lifestyle.
Consider the chinks in your armor. Unlocked doors, open windows, unknown key-holders (do your kids’ friends have keys? Neighbors who moved away? Former employees?).
Analyze the every day things you and your family do and say that could put you at risk. Do you talk about family vacations or mention your kids’ schools or the teams they play on to people who have no need to know?
If you’re a single parent dating on the internet, did you include pictures of your children on your profile?
Do you walk with your head up, body erect, your eyes watchful, listening to the world around you?
Do you trust your intuition?
For the next couple of days, Susan Sciara will be writing here. A past board member of the Chicago Chapter of the Association of Threat Assessment Professionals, she spent eleven years heading the Threat Assessment Team for “an agency of the Federal Government that is commonly associated in the public’s mind with workplace violence.” Show of hands, class… now which one could that be?
Hope you enjoy.
Tuesday, July 8, 2008
My Cat Socks And How To Become Color Coordinated
Instead, just like reading from a script, the most common reaction was, “You never figure that kind of thing is going to happen here.”
You don’t have to expect it to be aware that violent crime can touch you anywhere you go.
Before I was a reporter, I worked as a security consultant. I often had to fight with the families of corporate CEO’s about simple things like varying their routes to and from work, installing alarm systems and not announcing their travel plans on the society pages of the newspaper. Their most common reaction?
“I don’t want to always be afraid something will happen to us.”
You don’t have to live in fear to raise your threat awareness level from Jeff Cooper’s White to Yellow. Basic precautions are a good beginning and will give your instincts a chance to get up and stretch.
I walk my cat, Socks Monster the Feline Action Hero, on a leash (okay, okay I’m a wild man, what can I say?). One thing I notice before we go out is that he spends about five minutes peering through the screen door before he ventures onto the patio. His ears are perked and his gaze takes in everything. He’s scoping out his environment.
Now I do it, too. Before I walk outside, I look through the window. Five or ten seconds worth, not five minutes, but I’m not hoping to spot dinner, either.
After twenty years in this house I know the neighbors, their cars, and the landscaping services they use. I know the postal carrier, the trash collectors for this route, the meter dudes and the Orkin man. I know which families have kids. I know what time their bus stops, school in winter and camp in summer. More importantly, I know who parks on the street at night and who is out walking their dogs or otherwise moving around. I am aware of my surroundings.
Anything or anyone I don’t recognize takes me from Yellow to Orange even before I step out the door.
When Socks goes outside, I notice his ears keep flipping back and forth and he stops and stares under bushes, up in the trees and into the distance. The other day I was cleaning the car and he was leashed to the wall of the house. He suddenly made a beeline for the back door. I let him in, went back to what I was doing, looked up and was staring at a fox standing six feet away at the front of the car. Mr. Fox was no more startled to see me than I was to see him. Socks went from Yellow to Orange and so did the fox and I.
Animals don’t blunt their senses the way humans often do.
Think about it this way. If you saw two friends walking down the street and wanted to jokingly throw a scare into one of them, which one would you choose? The one with her head down watching the ground, posture slouched, iPod earphones in both ears? Or the girl walking tall, head up, listening to the world around her, eyes roaming, who spotted you well before you saw her and gave you a great big smile because she knows the kind of prankster you are?
It’s hard to recognize Yellow, much less move there, if your eyes are closed, your ears are blocked and your thoughts are focused on the dinner party you’re throwing tomorrow night.
Tomorrow, some ways to anticipate threats and avoid becoming a victim.
Later in the week, my guest will be Susan M. Sciara, who spent eleven years as head of the Threat Assessment Team for, as she puts it, “an agency of the Federal Government that is commonly associated in the public’s mind with workplace violence.” She’ll discuss threat assessment and prevention and debunk some of the myths we hear and read about.
Shameless...
http://www.dailyherald.com/story/?id=215185
I should mention that, if you're the first to tell me you've read the Herald article, I'll send you a t-shirt.
Monday, July 7, 2008
Keeping One's Head Out of One's Posterior
I assumed the car was going to stop. It not only didn’t, but speeded up, as though going faster meant it wouldn’t be in the intersection long enough for a cop to see the violation.
I didn’t anticipate. Fortunately, I have good brakes and, at the last moment, I spotted the warning signs.
How often do we assume things to be true when they really aren’t?
I’m okay walking down this street after dark because I’ve done it twenty, thirty, one-hundred times before. I don’t lock my doors because I live in a safe neighborhood. I’ll get into an elevator with someone who my intuition tells me might be dangerous because it’s too embarrassing not to do so. Cars always stop at stop signs.
Gavin deBecker, the author of The Gift of Fear trilogy and an international expert in the prediction of violence, believes we should listen to our intuition, our gut feeling, our instinct:
“The truth is that every thought is preceded by a perception, every impulse is preceded by a thought, every action is preceded by an impulse, and man is not so private a being that his behavior is unseen, his patterns undetectable.”
We all have intuition. Some of us are better at paying attention to it than others. Unfortunately, as deBecker points out, some understand what their instinct was trying to tell them only after something happens. The point is to be open to not only hearing that little warning voice in our heads, but heeding its advice.
Perhaps Jeff Cooper’s color code system can help. Cooper was the father of what’s called the “Modern Technique” of shooting a handgun but you don’t need to own a weapon to give your instincts a regular workout.
Cooper’s system of four color codes of mental awareness (which have nothing to do with the Homeland Security defense codes) is explained thus:
- White: Relaxed, unaware and unprepared. Basically you have your head up your butt and have no idea danger is approaching until you’ve already been overwhelmed.
- Yellow: Relaxed alertness. As Cooper puts it, “Your mindset is, ‘today could be the day I may have to defend myself.’” Your head is up, your posture says you’re alert and you’re using your eyes and ears to actively observe the world around you. You are prepared to take action if necessary.
- Orange: Specific alert. You’re noticing something wrong in your immediate environment. A person looks suspicious. A noise gets your attention. A van is parked too close to yours in the parking lot late at night. Someone is glancing at your child in the park a little too often. It’s the middle of summer and a customer in the back of the convenience store is wearing a coat.
- Red: Fight trigger. You’re thinking, “If x happens, I will do y.” You have already prepared yourself to react, whether to step closer to your child, avoid going to your car in that dark parking lot, or even to scream and be ready to fight off an assailant.
Many of us spend our lives in White. I sure was in it on my bike today! We know the world can be a nasty place but we assume our world is safe. Sometimes we take it a step further, figuring not only our world is safe but, if things suddenly change, there are people who will take care of us should danger approach.
Anyone who has been the victim of a crime will tell you that assumption is false.
I’ll offer some thoughts about moving from White to Yellow tomorrow.
Sunday, July 6, 2008
Ignoring the Warning Signs...And Paying For It
Dana King's comments, posted after yesterday's blog, are right on point. Take a look. They're worth reading.
While we have the right to do many things, leaving our blinds open and parking wherever we choose among them, that entitlement comes with a price. Predators consider our innocence as opportunity. Where we see an unlocked door as a family convenience, they see an invitation to enter and steal. Or worse.
Crime is not random. It follows a pre-cast set of circumstances. We play right into that by ducking our heads and not watching the world around us.
Domestic violence often occurs for the same reason.
I'll use a college friend's experience as an example.
Sheri began dating a guy who all of us thought was terrific. Within weeks of meeting, bang! they got enagaged. They scheduled the wedding a few months later. Every time we got together, he seemed to be the life of the party, though they partied with us less and less the longer they remained a couple.
The night they returned from their honeymoon, he beat her and threw her down a flight of stairs, blackening both eyes, breaking three of her ribs and leaving her with a concussion.
We were shocked. He must have just snapped, we said. Must have been drunk.
Turned out, he wasn't drunk and the warning signs had been there all along. In our innocence, even though many of us were cops and prosecutors, we missed them. He was a clever predator; none of us saw through him. Except Sheri.
She told me later she sensed the storm approaching but just didn't take cover. She thought the lightning and thunder would pass.
She said he started acting strangely right after their engagement.
He insisted she stay at home rather than spending time with her friends and family. That she drop off her dog with her parents and leave it there. That she leave grocery shopping, and even answering the phone, to him. He shoved her away when she noticed a picture of his ex-girlfriend in his wallet. During an argument, he broke a ceramic figurine she loved. He took sexual roughousing to painful extremes. On their honeymoon, he was verbally abusive to the hotel staff, to the point of chasing a maid out of their room when she walked in as they were having sex. He snapped at Sheri when she told him he was acting unreasonably.
Sheri said nothing about her fiancee's behavior to anyone else because he always apologized after every nastiness. Brought flowers and other gifts for her. Left a huge tip for the room maid and the restaurant servers he regularly abused.
She thought something was wrong but convinced herself she was crazy.
One of the nation's leading experts in predicting violent behavior, Gavin deBecker, offers the example of a woman who sees an edgy looking guy on an elevator she wants to use. He makes her very nervous but she gets on anyway, thinking herself foolish for being fearful.
Warning signs ignored. Precautions not taken. Trouble's approach denied.
Do we draw from this that Sheri is partly to blame for what happened to her? Of course not.
No more than the drunk guy who parked in the bad neighborhood should be blamed for being beaten up and car-jacked. No more than the woman who gets on the elevator.
It's not about blame or fault or guilt or even "paying the price of stupidity" as some would argue.
The penalty for marrying a manipulative and abusive jerk should be divorce, never two black eyes and broken ribs.
It's about warning signs ignored. Precautions not taken. Trouble's approach denied.
Later this week, I'll offer some thoughts on becoming more alert to the warning signs of victimization and violence and how to, as my friend Dana pointed out in his comments yesterday, "think the extra steps down the road when making a decision."
I've also invited a guest blogger to discuss the elements that need to exist for violence to occur.
Stay tuned!
Friday, July 4, 2008
Are We Really So Helpless?
As a nation, we tend to avoid responsibility. Denial is one of our most inherent traits. If bad things happen, we don't like to admit fault. Better that it's the other guy or the collective "them."
We insist, "Those greedy oil companies are keeping gas prices high. Me and my Hummer aren't the problem."
"The cops should arrest those drunk drivers before they kill someone. It's not my place to take their car keys away."
"It's not my fault that I got beaten up and carjacked. All I did was drink a li'l too much and walk to my new Mercedes convertible down a dark alley in a questionable part of town. The carjacker was the one with the gun for cryin' out loud!"
And, of course, shame on the thoughtless, sexist bastard who would ever suggest that a woman who is sexually assaulted may have done something to precipitate it.
Consider this, however. We know that sexual predators frequently begin their careers by prowling homes and peeping in windows. Should it then come as a surprise that convicted rapists report choosing their victims on the basis of who keeps their blinds open?
Think about what a creep might see when peering in a woman's window. Not just her nakedness. The fact she lives alone. The layout of the place, allowing mental preparation for a later home invasion. The lack of a security system or a dog. The placement of telephones or the fact the woman uses only a cell phone which she frequently forgets to charge. Perhaps even the location of potential weapons such as kitchen knives. The list goes on.
So, is it "wrong" to leave blinds open? Is it "bad" to drive a Mercedes? Can we be "blamed" for having a few drinks in a questionable neighborhood?
Of course not. But we need to be aware that each of these innocent actions may contribute to later victimization.
Crime doesn't "just happen."
I don't believe domestic abuse does either.
More tomorrow.